Gawler Race 7 Preview: Rated Prices, Tips And Pace Read
Gawler Race 7 preview: Kingsley's top four, rated prices against the morning market, plus the pace read on a 15-horse field at 6:54pm AEDT.
Fifteen go around at Gawler in Race 7 for $107,500, jumping 6:54pm AEDT, and the shape of it hinges on how many want to be forward from the wrong gates. The full rated card is free to view today.
The race
Conditions are fine with the rail in the true position, and the field is a full 15. Weights run from 60kg on Chicago Storm (1) down to a large block of runners on 54kg, which is where several of the live chances sit. The draw is doing plenty of the talking: two of Kingsley's top three come from gates 13 and 14, while the runner he rates hardest to beat has drawn barrier 8 after being badly placed last time.
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The pace picture
The tempo band reads Average with a pressure figure of 51.06 per cent — a middling reading rather than a genuine speed meltdown. PPIR is the predicted in-run position, where a low number means a runner settles closer to the lead, and on that measure Bootlegger (3) maps to lead from barrier 6 with a ppir of 1.
Behind that, the shape splits sharply. Chicago Storm (ppir 4) and Sir Kingsford (4) at ppir 5 want to be in the first half of the field, while a cluster of chances map well back: Isuspectjeu (10) at ppir 19, Alpine Flyer (13) at ppir 18 and Dirty Old Town (9) at ppir 17 all need the tempo to crack open. That is the central tension of the race — the ones with the best finishing speed are also the ones with the most ground to make up.
Kingsley's four
His top pick is Cicala (7). She was shuffled back from a wide gate last start, then had to steady off heels in the straight and still finished off strongly, which is an easy run to forgive. She holds a clear class edge on these and the barrier is far friendlier tonight. The catch is the quote: rated $3.60 against a $2.90 market this morning, so the market has her shorter than Kingsley does and there is nothing in it for a backer.
His second pick Sir Kingsford (4) fought on well when run down at Murray Bridge in a race whose shape worked against him, he trains at Gawler, and he will push forward again. Barrier 13 of 15 is the obvious query — he will have to work to get there. He is rated $5.50 against a $6.50 market this morning, the rare case here where Kingsley is shorter than the board.
His third pick Bamyan Buddha (5) was stranded wide without cover last start and still stuck his nose out to deadheat for third, and he owns four wins from eight starts at this track. Barrier 14 is the awkward part. Rated $7.50 against an $8.00 market this morning, so the two are close to agreement.
His fourth pick Alpine Flyer (13) drops from 59.5kg to 54kg and was beaten under a length at Morphettville. He is rated $34 against a $23 market this morning — Kingsley wants more than the board is offering on a horse that needs the race run to suit. There are no official tips in this race.
Wide gate last time so she was eased right back, then steadied off heels in the straight and still ran on well late, easy to forgive that. Rates near the top of the field on CSW with a clear class edge on these, and the draw is far kinder today. Expect her a lot closer. Top pick, though the quote leaves you nothing to play with.
Battled on gamely when just run down at Murray Bridge and the shape of that race was against him. Rank 1 on cruising and CAM, trained here at Gawler, and he'll roll forward again. The query is barrier 13 of 15 and a fast tempo predicted, he'll have to work to find the front and won't get it easy there. Second pick.
Stuck wide with no cover last start and still poked his nose out to deadheat for 3rd. 4 wins from 8 at Gawler, he loves the place, and there's early money about. Barrier 14 the awkward bit. Third pick.
Big weight drop from 59.5kg to 54kg and he was beaten under a length at Morphettville last start. Second best acceleration in the race and a fast tempo predicted sets it up for the ones coming from the rear. Fourth pick.
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Get today — $50The metrics
CSW is the class-speed-weight time rating, and Chicago Storm tops the field at 96.60 (cswRank 1), with Cicala next at 94.43. CAM is the composite ability mark, and Sir Kingsford leads it on 99.43, from Isuspectjeu at 96.18. Cruising speed measures the tempo a horse can hold through the middle stages, and Sir Kingsford ranks first there too on 101.4, with Chicago Storm second on 99.4.
Acceleration is the sprint-off-the-bend figure, and Isuspectjeu is the standout on 106.73, with Alpine Flyer second on 101.99. Both map near the tail, which is precisely why the pressure reading matters so much tonight.
Market against the ratings
Bootlegger is rated $13 against an $8.50 market this morning, and Kingsley is plainly against that one — one-paced to the line last time and ratings below the main players. Dirty Old Town is rated $18 against an $11 market this morning despite mapping a long way back.
Watch the first 400m: if Sir Kingsford has to burn from gate 13 to cross, the back half of the field gets its chance.
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