Gosford Race 6 Preview: Fast Tempo Sets Up The Closers
Gosford Race 6 preview: a fast tempo at 72% pressure, Kingsley's top four, rated prices against the market, plus the CAM, CSW and acceleration standouts.
A 2030m contest at Gosford with drizzle about, ten runners and a tempo reading that points to a genuinely strong gallop. That one number shapes everything below.
The race
Race 6 at Gosford on Thursday 22 October jumps at 4:15pm AEDT for $42,000. Ten go around on a surface rated G with the rail out three metres to the 600m and four metres the rest of the way, and drizzle falling. The trip is the story for several of these: a number of the field are stepping well beyond anything they have attempted, and over 2030m that is where the race gets decided rather than in the first 600m.
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The pace picture
The tempo band is Fast and the pressure reading is 72.24 per cent — a measure of how contested the lead and forward positions project to be, where higher means a harder, more sustained gallop. At that level the leaders are being asked to do real work, and the horses settling last get a target.
Who maps forward is read off ppir, the predicted in-run position where 1 means settling closest to the lead. Balmain Warrior (5) carries a ppir of 1 from barrier two and maps to lead. Mochima (7) on the fence and Ausbred Eclipse (4) from the outside alley are next closest at 2 and 3, with Scoish Maloish (9) at 4 and Renoir (3) at 5. The back half of the shape is where the value sits: Don's Party (1) has the furthest-back reading in the race at 10, Powerful Prayer (2) is at 9 and Wizard's Star (8) at 8, with What She's Having (10) at 7.
Frankie's Boy (6) is the clear leader type on profile and tops the cruising speed ranking, but the pressure projected on makes fronting up over this trip a harder assignment than it looks on paper.
Kingsley's selections
His top pick is What She's Having (10), rated $5 against a $7.00 market this morning — a clear overlay on his numbers. She missed the start last time and still finished off through traffic, so the bare margin undersold the run. From a ppir of 7 she is settling near the back, which is precisely the spot the pressure reading rewards, and Kerrin McEvoy is a meaningful riding upgrade. She also carries the official tip in this race.
His second pick Frankie's Boy (6) is rated $5.50 against a $4.40 market this morning. Tim Clark takes the ride, and the form line reads better than the result — the way his Goulburn run unfolded was against him and he was still beaten only a length and a half. He is the main danger, with the caveat that the tempo makes life awkward out in front.
His third pick Balmain Warrior (5) is rated $18 against a $14.00 market this morning, and Kingsley is explicit that he is no more than a third pick: handy from the inside gate, but he found little when asked last time, is winless from six and is going a good deal further than ever before.
His fourth pick Don's Party (1) is rated $8.50 against a $6.50 market this morning. He is up in trip from the mile, gets a first-time tongue tie, and will be winding up from the rear with something to chase.
Powerful Prayer (2) is rated $4.60 against a $3.50 market this morning — Kingsley is happy to take that on, with one win from sixteen and 3kg more to carry.
Missed the kick last start and still worked home strongly through traffic, that run was a good deal better than the bare result. She'll be settling at the rear and with the speed predicted on up front over 2030m, that's exactly where I want her. McEvoy is a serious upgrade and she's well over the odds. Looks a strong play and an Official Tip.
Clear leader type of the race and rates best on cruising, though the speed predicted on makes life harder out in front over 2030m. The way the race was run last time was all against him at Goulburn and he still only went down a length and a half. Tim Clark jumps on. 2nd pick and the biggest threat to my top selection.
Settles handy from the inside gate and the extra ground gives him a fresh angle. Trouble is he found little when asked last start, he's 0 from 6, and this is a good chunk further than he's ever gone. 3rd pick and no more than that.
Up in trip from the mile and this looks right in his wheelhouse. He'll be winding up from the rear, but he owns the 2nd best acceleration in the race and the speed predicted up front gives him something to run at late. Tongue tie goes on for the 1st time. 4th pick.
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Get today — $50The metrics
CAM is the composite ability rating, the all-in measure of a horse's overall quality. Powerful Prayer ranks first on CAM at 80.50, from Frankie's Boy at 77.88 and Don's Party at 76.68.
CSW is the class-speed-weight time rating, which blends raw time with the grade and the weight carried. Wizard's Star tops it on 85.33, with Scoish Maloish second on 82.46 and What She's Having third on 81.85.
Cruising speed measures the tempo a horse can sustain without strain: Frankie's Boy leads on 84.2, from Balmain Warrior on 81.7 and Ausbred Eclipse on 79.7. Acceleration measures the change of gear late, and Powerful Prayer ranks first on 89.01 ahead of Don's Party on 80.13, with What She's Having third on 79.46 — a useful pairing of back-marker and finishing burst in a race projected to be run fast.
The one-line claim
The entire race hinges on whether 72 per cent pressure is enough to bring the leaders back to the closers, and Kingsley has the third-ranked accelerator settling seventh of ten at rated $5 against a $7.00 market.
What to watch: whether Frankie's Boy is allowed an uncontested lead — if he is, the whole closing case softens.
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