Randwick Race 9 Preview: Autumn Glow Headlines The Million

Randwick Race 9 is a $1,000,000 sprint over the mile-and-a-bit trip, jumping at 4:30pm AEST on a fine day with the rail in the True position. Eleven line up, and it is a genuine test of class where several are dropping sharply in trip.

The race and the shape

This is deep, quality staying-into-sprinting company, and the tempo band reads Fast with a pressure reading of 68.69 per cent — a strong, honest gallop that will test anyone caught wide or lacking a finish. That shape is the story of the race. When the speed is on up front, the runners who settle back and close hard are handed the race, and the field maps to split into leaders and swoopers.

The one who maps to lead is the top pick Autumn Glow (8), whose ppir of 1 puts her closest to the speed. Behind her, Sheza Alibi (14) is next forward on a ppir of 2 from barrier 1, with Idle Flyer (11) and Lindermann (3) also rolling forward. At the other end sit the closers: Fangirl (10) settles last of all on a ppir of 11, with Green Spaces (7) and Aeliana (9) also getting well back and needing the tempo to fall their way. On today's pace picture, it should.

The pace picture

A fast, pressured mile favours the runner who can sit on the speed without doing the work and the runner who swoops late. Autumn Glow does both parts of that better than the field — she maps on the speed and owns the best turn of foot of the on-pacers. The genuine tempo also plays directly into Fangirl's hands: she gets right back and comes over the top, and the harder they go in front, the more it sets up for her.

Kingsley's selections

Autumn Glow is Kingsley's top pick and the official Golden Bullet tip, and he calls her the best horse in the race with everything in her favour. She is 11 wins from 12, six from seven at Randwick, and drops back to a sprinter's trip off a run over 2000m. He trialled her well and has her rated $1.50 against a $1.75 market this morning. He does not think Sheza Alibi can get past her.

His second pick is Fangirl (10), whom he rates the biggest threat. This is exactly her set-up — a fast speed up front, a track she loves and a trip that suits — and he has her rated $34 against a $26 market this morning.

Third is Aeliana (9), stepping into elite company off a 2400m win with the sharp drop in trip the only query; the class and ratings hold up and Rawiller jumps aboard. She is rated $15 against a $14 market this morning. Fourth is Gringotts (2), held up when the run never came last start, a trial winner who loves this trip; rated $41 against a $21 market this morning.

Worth naming plainly: Kingsley thinks the market has Sheza Alibi far too short. She is up in the weights and wants further, and off a soft win in easier grade he is happy to take her on — he has her rated $6 against a $3.40 market this morning.

The metrics

CAM, the composite ability rating, has Autumn Glow ranked first in the field, with Gringotts second and Lindermann third. On CSW — the class-speed-weight time rating — Ceolwulf (1) tops the field at cswRank 1 despite resuming, with Autumn Glow second and Aeliana third.

Cruising speed, a horse's sustainable travelling speed, favours the forward types: Lindermann ranks first, Midnight Dynamite (4) second and Autumn Glow third. Acceleration, the measure of late burst, is where the swoopers earn their keep — Fangirl ranks first, Autumn Glow second and Gringotts third. That combination of a top-two CAM, a top-two acceleration and a front-running map is exactly why Autumn Glow shapes as the one they all have to beat.

What to watch

Watch the tempo confirm the map: if the mile is run fast as forecast, it hands the race to Autumn Glow on the speed and Fangirl coming over the top.

Pre-race analysis, published before the jump. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.